As Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa server platforms are about to enter mass production, recent market reports suggest that Server DDR5 RDIMM is facing PMIC compatibility issues. DRAM manufacturers and PMIC suppliers are working on resolving the issue. TrendForce believes this situation will have two effects: first, DRAM manufacturers will increase their procurement share of MPS (Monolithic Power Systems) PMICs, which are unaffected by the issue. Second, as current DDR5 Server DRAM production remains on older processes, short-term supply will inevitably be affected, leading to an estimated Q2 DDR5 Server DRAM price decline converging from the originally forecasted 15-20% to 13-18%.

As mentioned earlier, the short-term supply impact on DDR5 Server DRAM is not only due to PMIC issues but also because production is still on older processes. Even though SK Hynix is gradually increasing production and sales of its 1alpha nm, many buyers have already validated the 1Y nm process. With 1alpha nm not yet fully validated, the current production processes mainly focus on Samsung and SK Hynix's 1Y nm and Micron's 1Z nm, with 1 alpha and 1 beta nm expected to ramp up in the second half of this year.

Consequently, under the expectation of a lower DDR5 Server DRAM fulfillment rate in the short term, TrendForce estimates that the price of DDR5 Server DRAM 32GB will fall between $80-90 from April to May, slightly higher than the originally forecasted Q2 average price of $75, resulting in a larger price difference between DDR5 and DDR4. Moreover, with DDR4's price decline at 18-23% and DDR5's at 13-18% for Q2, DDR4's seasonal price decline will be greater than DDR5's.

Indirectly boosted by AI demand, 128GB high-capacity module prices have stopped falling in April

In addition, the ChatBOT craze has driven AI server shipments, indirectly increasing the demand for Server DDR5 RDIMM 128GB, and raising the discussion around HBM. The demand for high-capacity RDIMMs has increased significantly at the beginning of Q2, mostly concentrated in US-based cloud service providers (CSPs). The 128GB RDIMM requires TSV (Through Silicon Via) for vertical architecture silicon through-hole packaging, and the main suppliers' TSV production lines cannot be increased in the short term. This will further raise the price of SK Hynix's high-capacity DDR5 modules this month, which is different from the current downward trend in DDR4 and other DDR5 product prices.

In summary, DDR5 module designs have additional PMIC components compared to DDR4, which pose more risks in terms of compatibility. Coupled with customers generally delaying mass production of new server platforms, DRAM manufacturers have been sending samples to CPU manufacturers and buyers for validation since early 2022. However, actual problems have only surfaced recently as new platforms gradually ramp up. TrendForce believes that the resulting DDR4 and DDR5 price differences will be reflected in Q2 and Q3, with the price gap converging as new process products start ramping up.